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Middle East conflict escalates, pushing oil prices sharply higher and triggering a sell-off in global shares. Investors seek refuge in the dollar, gold, and bonds as the Strait of Hormuz faces potential disruption. The prolonged conflict risks reigniting inflation and dampening economic demand worldwide.
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Equity markets faced pressure last week due to geopolitical tensions and tech stock weakness. Investors are reacting to the Iran-US-Israel conflict, with analysts predicting a negative near-term impact. Several stocks like Adani Ports, Fino Payments Bank, GAIL, BEL, and SpiceJet are in focus due to various news developments.
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Indian markets are poised for a gap-down opening with heightened volatility due to the US-Iran conflict. Oil marketing companies, paints, and aviation sectors may face margin pressure from rising input costs. Conversely, upstream oil producers and defense stocks could see positive sentiment.
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Brent crude futures shot up to $82.37, the highest since January 2025, in the first futures trading after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran and ‌killed its Supreme Leader ⁠Ali ⁠Khamenei on Saturday. As of 0054 GMT, Brent futures were at $78.24 a barrel, up $5.37, or 7.37%.
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While policy rates in India are likely to stay at current levels or even go lower for an extended period, there are risks as well, Malhotra said. Inflation is looking benign and going forward, underlying inflation is expected to remain low. It will depend on growth-inflation dynamics as they play out. We are still living in very uncertain times, the RBI Guv added.
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