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The Indian rupee hit a new all-time low against the dollar on Friday, driven by concerns over sustained high oil prices and the ongoing Middle East conflict. Despite a significant decline since the Iran war began, the rupee has shown resilience compared to other emerging markets due to interventions by the Reserve Bank of India.
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The escalating Middle East conflict is heightening Japan’s inflation risks, potentially accelerating the Bank of Japan’s rate-hike timeline. Rising fuel prices, supply disruptions, and a tightening labor market are pushing inflation above the BOJ’s 2% target, prompting cautious policymaking while balancing economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties.
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Jefferies has cut Reliance Industries’ (RIL) target price to Rs 1,750, citing a delayed Jio tariff hike and likely Jio IPO postponement. However, the brokerage highlights gains for the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business amid Middle East supply disruptions, which boost refining and petrochemical margins, offsetting near-term digital segment drag.
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Surging oil prices driven by escalating tensions involving Iran are complicating the U.S. monetary policy outlook. Rising energy costs could keep inflation elevated, prompting investors to scale back expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Economists warn that persistent crude price gains may delay policy easing and pressure global food and consumer prices.
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Global energy markets face fresh uncertainty as Iran signals potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This critical chokepoint, through which a fifth of global oil flows, is raising fears of supply disruptions. Experts highlight Iran’s strategic leverage and the worldwide impact of high oil prices. The situation’s complexity and logistical challenges suggest a prolonged period of volatility.
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