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Indian markets ended FY26 in the red amid global uncertainty and domestic pressures, with Nifty falling over 5% and Sensex declining 7%. Persistent foreign outflows, weak earnings, high valuations, and a weakening rupee kept sentiment subdued, while escalating tensions involving Iran further worsened the outlook by driving up energy prices and dampening hopes of US rate cuts.
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The Reserve Bank of India’s intervention to curb arbitrage trades has triggered a disorderly unwinding of bank positions, causing the rupee to slide. This regulatory action, coupled with global risk-off sentiment and geopolitical tensions, is expected to keep the rupee under pressure for several days. Experts suggest the rupee could depreciate by around 10% in this cycle.
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The Indian rupee slipped past 95 against the US dollar, driven by structural imbalances, foreign outflows, and high oil prices. RBI-imposed limits on banks’ forex positions aim to curb speculation and arbitrage. A further slide toward 100 could pressure import-reliant sectors and financial markets, while exporters like IT and pharma may benefit. Market experts warn the rupee remains under sustained stress.
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