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Middle East conflict now signals a global growth shock, not just inflation, warns macro strategist Stephen Innes. Elevated oil prices, potentially $90-$100, are forcing central banks into difficult choices, risking stagflation. While caution is advised, Innes sees opportunity in electric vehicles, especially in China and India, as the energy crisis accelerates their adoption.
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Gold and silver prices edged lower on MCX on Monday as a stronger US dollar, driven by escalating Middle East tensions, weighed on precious metals. Gold futures fell 0.68% while silver declined around 0.5%, tracking global weakness where gold has plunged about 16% this month—its steepest fall since 2008.
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Indian stock markets experienced a sharp decline on Monday. The Sensex and Nifty saw significant drops, wiping out substantial market capitalisation. This downturn was driven by escalating tensions between Iran and the US-Israel, which fueled a rally in oil prices. Major banking and financial stocks were among the top losers.
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The Bank of Japan monitors yen weakness closely, with Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighting its impact on import costs and inflation. While short-term rates remain at 0.75%, currency movements increasingly influence price trends. Policymakers balance supporting economic recovery with managing inflation risks amid global uncertainties and sustained yen depreciation.
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The Reserve Bank of India has stepped in to halt the rupee’s fall. This move forces banks to unwind dollar positions, potentially leading to a Rs 4,000 crore loss for the banking sector. Banks had profited from differences in dollar rates between local and offshore markets. The RBI’s action aims to curb one-sided bets against the rupee.
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